旅游业发展对中国碳排放的影响——基于中国东、中、西部的比较分析

在“双碳”战略目标下,深入研究中国旅游业对碳排放的影响,对科学制定减排政策,发展低碳旅游,以及应对气候变化有着重要的理论和现实意义。使用2003-2019年除港澳台和西藏之外的30个省市面板数据,从国内旅游和入境旅游的视角,结合面板单位根、协整、格兰杰因果检验,利用固定效应模型和随机效应模型探究东、中、西部旅游业发展与碳排放的关系。研究结果表明:(1)中国旅游业发展与碳排放之间均存在长期均衡关系。(2)入境旅游对碳排放不存在显著影响,国内旅游对碳排放存在显著正向影响。(3)东、中、西部地区的旅游业和碳排放关系存在差异,其中东部和中部地区国内旅游收入每提高1%将导致其碳排放总量分别增加2.313%和7.531%,而西部地区国内旅游收入提高1%将导致其碳排放总量减少1.306%。

The impact of tourism development on China's carbon emissions: the comparative analysis of East, Middle and West China

Examining China''s tourism impact on carbon emissions under the "dual-carbon" strategy is crucial for theoretical and practical advancements, which plays a pivotal role in crafting precise emission reduction policies, promoting low-carbon tourism, and addressing climate change challenges adeptly. This study employs panel data encompassing 30 provinces and municipalities in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2003 to 2019 to comprehensively examine the intricate correlation between tourism development and carbon emissions across the eastern, central, and western regions. Through a meticulous analysis involving domestic tourism and inbound tourism, the study employs panel unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests, as well as fixed-effects and random-effects models. Results indicate that 1) A long-term equilibrium relationship exists between the development of China''s tourism industry and carbon emissions. 2) Inbound tourism shows no significant impact on carbon emissions, whereas domestic tourism demonstrates a significantly positive effect. 3) Variations in the tourism-carbon emissions relationship are observed across different regions: the Eastern and Central regions show that 1% increase in domestic tourism revenue leads to a respective increase of 2.313% and 7.531% in carbon emissions. Conversely, the Western region experiences 1.306% decrease in carbon emissions for every 1% increase in domestic tourism revenue.