Estimation of climatic factors relating to occurrence of the maize orange leafhopper, Cicadulina bipunctata

The maize orange leafhopper, Cicadulina bipunctata is a serious pest of forage maize in East and Southeast Asia. In temperate Japan, the occurrence of this leafhopper fluctuates widely among years. Here, we examined effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation and sunlight) on the occurrence of C. bipunctata. Seasonal occurrence of adult C. bipunctata in a census field from July to August, when forage maize was most susceptible to the pest, could be described by a simple exponential function with two parameter: estimated density of C. bipunctata on 1 July (N ₀) and intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) for each year. Forward stepwise multiple regression analysis using seasonal occurrence data from 2004 to 2009 detected positive contributions of average temperatures in the previous December and February and a negative contribution of total precipitation during the previous winter to N ₀. The analysis also indicated that average temperature in July of the current year and N ₀ contributed positively and negatively to r, respectively. These results indicated that high temperature and little precipitation during winter and high temperature in early summer induced high occurrence of C. bipunctata in summer. A prediction model based on these factors supported the actual seasonal occurrence in 2010, suggesting that this prediction model is applicable to C. bipunctata forecasting. The prediction model indicated that further global warming in the future is likely to cause further outbreaks of C. bipunctata.