Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation |
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Authors: | Simon N Gosling Glenn R McGregor Anna Páldy |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, King’s College, London, WC2R 2LS, UK;(2) Jozsef Fodor National Institute of Environmental Health, Budapest, Hungary |
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Abstract: | Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections
of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical
models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T
max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London,
and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate
significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting
higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is
due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive
relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation
techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate
that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore
be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities
(presented in Part 2). |
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Keywords: | Mortality Climate change Temperature Mortality displacement Heat waves |
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