Apparent adult survival of the critically endangered Baltic Dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii during a period of strong population decline

Capsule: Apparent adult survival of the critically endangered Baltic Dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii, showed evidence of a decline between 1990 and 2006 from 0.817 to 0.650.

Aims: In Europe, declines in wet-grassland breeding waders have been attributed to changes in breeding habitat but long-term information on survival is rare. We examined whether adult survival of the Baltic Dunlin declined during a period of strong population decline.

Methods: We modelled apparent survival using Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and long-term capture–recapture data collected from a Danish population. We fitted models that constrained apparent adult survival with linear and quadratic trends, and compared them with constant and time dependent models to test whether survival declined during the study period.

Results: Models including linear and quadratic trends were most supported. However, the trend variables explained only 24–35% of observed temporal variance suggesting that a large portion of variation in survival remained undescribed. Model averaged estimates indicated a decline in adult survival from 0.817 to 0.650 between 1990 and 2006 with increased uncertainty towards the end.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that gradual long-term changes in adult survival may have contributed to the decline of the Baltic Dunlin.