Mating patterns in a hybrid zone of fire-bellied toads (Bombina): inferences from adult and full-sib genotypes

We present two novel methods to infer mating patterns from genetic data. They differ from existing statistical methods of parentage inference in that they apply to populations that deviate from Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium, and so are suited for the study of assortative mating in hybrid zones. The core data set consists of genotypes at several loci for a number of full-sib clutches of unknown parentage. Our inference is based throughout on estimates of allelic associations within and across loci, such as heterozygote deficit and pairwise linkage disequilibrium. In the first method, the most likely parents of a given clutch are determined from the genotypic distribution of the associated adult population, given an explicit model of nonrandom mating. This leads to estimates of the strength of assortment. The second approach is based solely on the offspring genotypes and relies on the fact that a linear relation exists between associations among the offspring and those in the population of breeding pairs. We apply both methods to a sample from the hybrid zone between the fire-bellied toads Bombina bombina and B. variegata (Anura: Disco glossidae) in Croatia. Consistently, both approaches provide no evidence for a departure from random mating, despite adequate statistical power. Instead, B. variegata-like individuals among the adults contributed disproportionately to the offspring cohort, consistent with their preference for the type of breeding habitat in which this study was conducted.