城市生态韧性水平空间评估及其驱动力——以北京市通州区为例

随着城镇化水平的提高、城镇化进程的发展，城市生态系统逐渐变得脆弱不堪，增强城市生态韧性水平对城市发展起关键性作用。以韧性的核心内涵为基础评估城市生态韧性水平，探究城市防范化解生态风险能力在空间上的差异，从而制定分区生态治理制度，是提升城市防范化解生态风险能力的有效办法。从抵抗力、适应力和恢复力三方面构建了城市生态韧性水平空间评估模型，以2020年北京市通州区行政边界、土地利用、重点排污单位、人口等数据为例，评估了2020年北京市通州区生态韧性空间格局，并利用空间自相关模型对其分区生态治理进行研究。最后利用地理加权回归分析模型（Geographical weighted regression，GWR）进行驱动力分析，探讨社会经济层面对城市生态韧性水平空间的影响，并提出建设性建议。主要得到以下结论：（1）在空间结构上，通州区生态韧性低值区域最多，占比为52.80%，主要分布于通州区北部、东北部、中部偏西及东南部；高值区域最少，占比0.83%，零星分布于偏西部地区和偏南部地区。通州区由于缺乏相对适宜的整体规划和统筹安排，使城市生态系统的循环体系受到了负面影响，从而导致东南地区抵抗力弱。同时，近年来降水点的南移使得大量水资源在城市热岛效应的作用下流失，通州区东南部及通州大运河沿线区域内恢复力呈现出大范围低值水平。（2）通州区中心偏西北地区为副中心的核心地带，呈现低韧性水平-高排污企业密度的集聚分布情况，且生态韧性低值区域主要集聚于新华街、中仓街、玉桥街等区域，说明这些区域的环境生态风险防范化解能力比较低，需要因地制宜地对生态危机做出可持续的分区生态治理，增强区域对生态风险的调节能力。（3）结合GWR模型的驱动力分析，城市生态韧性水平主要被城市功能多样性驱动，且城市功能多样性越强，城市生态韧性水平越低，在通州区西北部的城市副中心负向影响最为显著。研究结果为城市生态韧性水平发展优化提供了理论依据，为促进国土空间合理利用和有效保护发挥积极作用。

Spatial evaluation of urban ecological resilience and analysis of driving forces: A case study of Tongzhou District, Beijing

With the improvement of urbanization level and urbanization process, the urban ecosystem has gradually become fragile. Enhancing the level of urban ecological resilience plays a key role in urban development. Based on the core connotation of resilience, evaluating the level of urban ecological resilience, exploring the spatial differences of urban ability to prevent and resolve ecological risks, and formulating regional ecological governance system are effective ways to improve urban ability to prevent and resolve ecological risks. In this study, we constructed the spatial evaluation model of urban ecological resilience level from three aspects of resistance, adaptability and recovery. We took the data of administrative boundary, land use, key pollutant discharge units, and the population of Tongzhou District in Beijing in 2020 as an example. This paper evaluated the spatial pattern of ecological resilience in Tongzhou District in 2020, and then used the spatial autocorrelation model to study its regional ecological governance. Finally, the driving force was analyzed by using geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the impact of socio-economic level on the horizontal space of urban ecological resilience, and put forward suggestions. The results showed that:(1) in terms of spatial structure, the low value areas of ecological toughness were the most, accounting for 52.80%, mainly distributed in the north, northeast, west-central and southeast areas of Tongzhou District. The high value areas were the least, accounting for 0.83%, which scattered in the western and southern regions. Due to the lack of relatively appropriate overall planning and overall arrangement in Tongzhou District, the circulation system of urban ecosystem has been negatively affected, resulting in weak resistance in southeast China. At the same time, in recent years, the southward movement of precipitation points has led to the loss of a large number of water resources under the action of urban heat island effect, and the resilience in the southeast of Tongzhou District and along the Tongzhou Grand Canal in Beijing presented a wide range of low value levels. (2) The northwest of the center of Tongzhou District is Beijing Municipal Administrative Center, showing the concentration and distribution of low toughness level-high pollutant discharge enterprise density. The low value areas of ecological toughness were mainly concentrated in Xinhua Street, Zhongcang Street, Yuqiao Street and other areas. These indicated that such areas had relatively low ability to prevent and resolve environmental ecological risks, and it is necessary to make sustainable regionally ecological governance for the ecological crisis according to local conditions as well as enhance the regional ability to adjust ecological risks. (3) Combined with the driving force analysis of GWR Model, the level of urban ecological resilience was mainly driven by urban functional diversity. The stronger the urban functional diversity, the lower the level of urban ecological resilience. The negative impact was most significant in the Beijing Municipal Administrative Center. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the development and optimization of urban ecological resilience level, which will play a positive role in promoting the rational utilization and effective protection of land and space.