| Abstract: | In this paper a stochastic model is presented for the time to the first conception of a cohort of married women. By identifying three states “adolescent sterility”, “ovulation” and “conceived”, into which the women can be placed, the model incorporates individual differences for the women in the “adolescent sterility” state which allow for the individual characteristics to affect the conversion of these women into the “ovulation” state. Using straightforward probabilistic arguments it is shown that the model provides a close fit to recently published data, compares favorably with previously published models on the same subject and it is useful for planning purposes in predicting future developments. |
