Phosphorus eutrophication in the SW Frisian lake district 2. Phosphorus balances and simulation of reduction scenarios

The lakes and interconnecting canals in the S.W. Frisian lake district are highly eutrophic. In the mid-1980's a project on eutrophication and lake restoration research was started. This project was aimed at modelling water transport and phosphorus (P) dynamics and at simulating management scenarios. A simple dynamic P-balance model was used to calculate total phosphorus (TP) balances and to simulate three TP reduction scenarios in each of three lakes: Tjeukemeer, Groote Brekken and Slotermeer. The model covered three periods in 1985, 1986 and 1987. The external loads to Tjeukemeer were highest, moderate to Groote Brekken, and lowest to Slotermeer. The major P sources in the area were discharges from the surrounding polders, used mainly for agriculture, and from IJsselmeer.Despite a 75% TP-reduction in water from the surrounding polders the 0.07 mg l^–1 target level could be reached only occasionally in Tjeukemeer, while in the other two lakes this level was not even approached. The effect of a 75% reduction in water from IJsselmeer was greatest in Groote Brekken (but again approached the target only occasionally), moderate in Tjeukemeer and least in Slotermeer. The simulations showed that only a 75% reduction in both external loads (from polders and from IJsselmeer) will lead to achieving the target level in Tjeukemeer and Groote Brekken during the summer periods. In Slotermeer, a relatively isolated lake, other measures are necessary to reach the target level. The results are confirmed by an approximate theoretical analysis of the effects of load reduction.