Predicted insect diversity declines under climate change in an already impoverished region |
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Authors: | Dirk Maes Nicolas Titeux Joaquín Hortal Anny Anselin Kris Decleer Geert De Knijf Violaine Fichefet Miska Luoto |
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Institution: | 1.Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO),Brussels,Belgium;2.Department Environment and Agro-biotechnologies,Public Research Centre - Gabriel Lippmann,Belvaux,Luxembourg;3.Behavioural Ecology and Conservation Group, Biodiversity Research Centre,Université catholique Louvain (UCL),Louvain-la-Neuve,Belgium;4.NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London,Berkshire,UK;5.Département de l’Etude du Milieu Naturel et Agricole,Gembloux,Belgium;6.Department of Geosciences and Geography,University of Helsinki,Helsinki,Finland |
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Abstract: | Being ectotherms, insects are predicted to suffer more severely from climate change than warm-blooded animals. We forecast
possible changes in diversity and composition of butterflies, grasshoppers and dragonflies in Belgium under increasingly severe
climate change scenarios for the year 2100. Two species distribution modelling techniques (Generalised Linear Models and Generalised
Additive Models), were combined via a conservative version of the ensemble forecasting strategy to predict present-day and
future species distributions, considering the species as potentially present only if both modelling techniques made such a
prediction. All models applied were fair to good, according to the AUC (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic
plot), sensitivity and specificity model performance measures based on model evaluation data. Butterfly and grasshopper diversity
were predicted to decrease significantly in all scenarios and species-rich locations were predicted to move towards higher
altitudes. Dragonfly diversity was predicted to decrease significantly in all scenarios, but dragonfly-rich locations were
predicted to move upwards only in the less severe scenarios. The largest turnover rates were predicted to occur at higher
altitudes for butterflies and grasshoppers, but at intermediate altitudes for dragonflies. Our results highlight the challenge
of building conservation strategies under climate change, because the changes in the sites important for different groups
will not overlap, increasing the area needed for protection. We advocate that possible conservation and policy measures to
mitigate the potentially strong impacts of climate change on insect diversity in Belgium should be much more pro-active and
flexible than is the case presently. |
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