A Prognostic Score for Patients with Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background

Intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), defined according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, is a heterogeneous condition with variable clinical benefits from transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). This study aimed to develop a simple validated prognostic score based on the predictive factors for survival in patients with intermediate-stage HCC treated with TACE.

Methods

Three-hundred and fifty patients with intermediate-stage HCC undergoing initial TACE at Chiba University Hospital (training cohort; n = 187) and two affiliated hospitals (validation cohort; n = 163) were included. Following variables were entered into univariate and multivariate Cox regression models to develop a points-based clinical scoring system: gender, age, etiology, pretreatment, Child–Pugh score, aspartate aminotransferase, creatinine, C-reactive protein, alfa-fetoprotein, size of the largest lesion, and number and location of lesions.

Results

The number of lesions and the Child–Pugh score were identified as independent prognostic factors in the training cohort. The development of a 0–7-point prognostic score, named the Chiba HCC in intermediate-stage prognostic (CHIP) score, was based on the sum of three subscale scores (Child–Pugh score = 0, 1, 2, or 3, respectively, number of lesions = 0, 2, or 3, respectively, HCV-RNA positivity = 0 or 1, respectively). The generated scores were then differentiated into five groups (0–2 points, 3 points, 4 points, 5 points, and 6–7 points) by the median survival time (65.2, 29.2, 24.3, 13.1, and 8.4 months, respectively; p < 0.0001). These results were confirmed in the external validation cohort (p < 0.0001).

Conclusions

The CHIP score is easy-to-use and may assist in finding an appropriate treatment strategy for intermediate-stage HCC.