Inter- and intra-generic differences in growth,reproduction, and fitness of nine herbaceous annual species grown in elevated CO2 environments

In assessing the capacity of plants to adapt to rapidly changing global climate, we must elucidate the impacts of elevated carbon dioxide on reproduction, fitness and evolution. We investigated how elevated CO₂ influenced reproduction and growth of plants exhibiting a range of floral morphologies, the implications of shifts in allocation for fitness in these species, and whether related taxa would show similar patterns of response. Three herbaceous, annual species each of the genera Polygonum, Ipomoea, and Cassia were grown under 350 or 700 ppm CO₂. Vegetative growth and reproductive output were measured non-destructively throughout the full life span, and vegetative biomass was quantified for a subsample of plants in a harvest at first flowering. Viability and germination studies of seed progeny were conducted to characterize fitness precisely. Early vegetative growth was often enhanced in high-CO₂ grown plants of Polygonum and Cassia (but not Ipomoea). However, early vegetative growth was not a strong predictor of subsequent reproduction. Phenology and production of floral buds, flowers, unripe and abscised fruits differed between CO₂ treatments, and genera differed in their reproductive and fitness responses to elevated CO₂. Polygonum and Cassia species showed accelerated, enhanced reproduction, while Ipomoea species generally declined in reproductive output in elevated CO₂. Seed quality and fitness (in terms of viability and percentage germination) were not always directly correlated with quantity produced, indicating that output alone may not reliably indicate fitness or evolutionary potential. Species within genera typically responded more consistently to CO₂ than unrelated species. Cluster analyses were performed separately on suites of vegetative and reproductive characters. Some species assorted within genera when these reproductive responses were considered, but vegetative responses did not reflect taxonomic affinity in these plants. Congeners may respond similarly in terms of reproductive output under global change, but fitness and prognoses of population persistence and evolutionary performance can be inferred only rarely from examination of vegetative characters alone.