Potential areas of deciduous forests in Spain (Castile and Leon) according to future climate change

Abstract

Areas that currently may be potentially occupied by deciduous forests represent approximately 5.5% of the Castile and Leon area. These forests include plant communities mainly dominated by Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Libl. and Betula pubescens Ehrh. subsp. celtiberica (Roth. & Vasc.) Rivas-Martínez. Taking into account the observed trends in annual mean temperature and precipitation in this region over a 37 years period (1961?–?1997), three climatic variation scenarios (for 2025, 2050 and 2075) have been proposed to determine the potential consequences of climatic change on the distribution patterns of the most representative deciduous forests. According to these scenarios, a more oceanic climate can be expected, leading to an increase in territories having a temperate climate. In this situation, deciduous forests could increase their distribution limits, thus replacing some semi-deciduous and evergreen ones. The paper also emphasizes the relevance of using bioclimatic models to anticipate possible changes in the natural vegetation of a territory. Thus, better knowledge of the seasonal distribution of temperature and rainfall under a climate change is necessary for forecasting effects on the forest distribution of a given region.