极小种群野生植物生存力分析: 方法、问题与展望

日益加剧的环境变化与人类活动严重威胁种群的生存, 因此预测多种胁迫下种群的命运至关重要。种群生存力分析(population viability analysis, PVA)是评估种群所受威胁、灭绝或衰退风险以及恢复可能性的有效方法。基于物种及环境数据和建模, 种群生存力分析能够整合不同类型变量, 为目标物种的保护提供建议。然而, 极小种群野生植物的个体数据难以获取, 种群参数估计困难, 这导致传统种群生存力分析方法在此类种群中的应用存在局限性。在此, 本文提出了极小种群野生植物生存力分析的潜在方法: 小样本非统计分析法及环境变化下的种群适应力分析。小样本非统计分析法有益于提高种群统计学参数的估计精度, 而立足于生态进化生物学的种群生存力研究有助于从生物学机理方面了解和预测种群动态, 为极小种群野生植物的保护提供更适宜的理论指导。

Population viability analysis of Wild Plant with Extremely Small Populations (WPESP): Methods,problems and prospects

Environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance have a significant impact on population persistence. Therefore, it is essential to predict population dynamics under multiple stresses. Population viability analysis (PVA) is an effective method for assessing threats, extinction risk and bottlenecks, and the likelihood of recovery. By combining data and models, PVA accommodates different types of variables and can offer appropriate advice for conservation. However, demographic parameters of Wild Plant with Extremely Small Populations are difficult to estimate, which makes the statistical power of these models quite low. Here, we offer some underlying PVA methods for Wild Plant with Extremely Small Populations using non-statistical theory with small sample sizes and population adaptive potential analysis. Methods based on the non-statistical theory can enhance the accuracy of parameter estimation in small populations, while the eco-evolutionary elements help to uncover mechanisms of population adaptation and predict population dynamics. These methods provide more appropriate guidance for the conservation of Wild Plant with Extremely Small Populations.