| Abstract: | When protected areas reduce threats within their boundaries, they often displace a portion of these threats into adjacent areas through a process known as ‘leakage’, undermining conservation objectives. Using theoretical models and a case study of terrestrial mammals in Indonesia, we develop the first theoretical explanation of how leakage impacts conservation actions, and highlight conservation strategies that mitigate these impacts. Although leakage is a socio-economic process, we demonstrate that its negative impacts are also affected by the distribution of species, with leakage having larger impacts in landscapes with homogeneous distribution of species richness. Moreover, leakage has a greater negative effect when conservation strategies are implemented opportunistically, even creating the potential for perversely negative consequences from protected area establishment. Leakage thereby increases the relative benefits of systematic conservation planning over opportunism, especially in areas with high leakage and heterogeneously distributed species. Although leakage has the potential to undermine conservation actions, conservation planning can minimize this risk. |
