灰色系统及其在动物资源管理中的应用——甘孜州麝香资源动态及其评价

本文将灰色系统理论及其模型运用到野生动物资源管理及保护利用的研究中。四川省甘孜藏族自治州是我国重要的产香区,我们通过收集该区历年麝香产量分析了该区麝香资源动态规律及其与人为活动的关系。我们利用该区1967—1975年麝香收购量建立的麝香资源状态及预测模型是:X~(1)(t)=-108214.5273e~(-0.0973(t-t_0))+1839.9007e~(-1.1494(t-t_0))+113969.1266关联度S=0.9278,1968—1975 年预测产量与实际产量十分接近,其平均误差为-5.6829％(-16.6075～9.3553％)。

GREY SYSTEM AND IT'S APPLICATION ON THE MANAGEMENT OF THE WILD MUSK RESOURCE

Estimate of the dynamic of musk resource at Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in the theory of Grey System and based on the investigation of wild musk deer (Moschus berezovskii, M, sifanicus), we create the musk resource prediction model of this areas with the purchase information of musk from 1967 to 1975. the prediction equation after 1967 is:X(1) (t) = - 108214.5273e~(-0.0973)(t-t0) + 1839.9007e~(-1.1494)(t-t0) + 113969.1266 the degree of connection S = 0.9278, we simulate of the predition and the purchase information are very closely,the average error rate is -5.6829% ( - 16.6076~9.3533%). but after 1978,the prediction and the purchase information are signification difference. the reason of the difference are, from 1978 to 1982, excessive pursue.and after 1982, the main factor caused the musk reduce is excessive pursue and lawless smuggle by some illgal person.