Extrapolation for Terrestrial Vertebrates

Risk assessment for terrestrial birds and mammals is most usually conducted for pesticides in standardized systems based on results of limited tests required for regulatory approval. Increasingly, attempts at risk assessment are being made for other chemicals. Typically for pesticides, dietary tests are extrapolated to a few representative species and risk factors derived as ratios against modeled environmental concentrations. There has been criticism of the validity of some of the standard tests, which makes even this simple approach difficult to justify. Attempts have been made to extrapolate from those values considered more reliable using statistical approaches. Relative sensitivity of test species has been determined. However, reliable extrapolation from laboratory to field remains elusive. Statistically derived values from test results probably generate extremely conservative estimates of environmental no-effect levels. Substantial information on the biology, distribution and food preference of species has, thus far, barely been applied to risk assessment. Other promising approaches, such as species differences in metabolic capacity, population dynamics models, and even sublethal effects on reproductive or behavioural endpoints, cannot in themselves provide simple risk factors either. A simple approach to generate approximate or relative risk factors is explored. While the accumulation of a set of circumstantial evidence might not be regarded as risk assessment in the normal sense, it might offer us a means to extrapolate to a reasonable understanding of likely effects in the field and contribute to a weight-of-evidence approach that informs risk management. It also focuses further studies to those areas and species within the environment most likely to be adversely affected