Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

An uneven change in climate across the Northern Hemisphere might severely affect the phenology of migrating animals, and especially long-distance migrating birds relying on local climatic cues to regulate the timing of migration. We examine the forward displacement of spring in both staging areas and breeding grounds of one such population, the East Atlantic light-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla hrota, and evaluate to what extent their migration has made a proportional response. On the breeding grounds in Svalbard the onset of spring advanced 2 weeks during the 24-year period, whereas no significant trend was found in the temperate staging areas. The timing of migration was constant throughout the study period, mirroring the static climatic conditions in the spring staging areas. These findings indicate a global warming-induced phenological mismatch in light-bellied brent geese, as these might arrive on their breeding grounds well beyond optimal breeding conditions. Our data indicated that productivity was negatively influenced by phenological delay and positively influenced by prolonged snow cover. We argue that both these effects might be representative of a negative influence of the growing phenological mismatch, because years with later thaw might partly offset the effects of increasingly earlier Svalbard springs. During the study period reproduction fell below annual mortality, and the population declined in recent years. The wider implications of these findings may extend to many migrating species, and highlight the urgent need to clarify how global change may influence cues and the associated timing of important life history activities.