进境台湾果蔬主要病虫风险评估与早期监测预警

[目的] 定量评估进境台湾果蔬主要病虫在大陆的入侵风险，为早期监测预警提供依据。[方法] 首先，基于外来物种传入、定殖、扩散和危害的一般过程，构建了包括4个层次26个指标的进境台湾果蔬有害生物入侵综合风险评估指标体系，规范了风险指数的计算方法，评估了14种病虫随台湾果蔬入侵的综合风险；其次，利用气候生态位模型预测了它们在我国的适生区；最后，融合进境台湾果蔬到达港口、物流中转站、集散地和主要病虫的适生区的空间分布，通过空间叠加分析划定了它们在我国传入并定殖的风险区及其空间异质性。[结果] 14种被评估病虫在我国的综合风险值均大于0.7，属高风险等级。14种病虫在我国都存在广阔的适生区，但不同物种适生区的面积和空间分布存在差异。福建、广东、海南等东部和南部沿海地区是它们适生区的高度重叠区，超过95%的台湾果蔬到达港口、物流中转和集散地的集中分布区，潜在的入侵风险极高。[结论] 进境台湾果蔬贸易能够促进或加剧外来有害生物的入侵。研究进一步证实了台湾已经并将继续成为大陆外来有害生物入侵的踏板。建议进一步加强海关检疫、开展和完善监测预警等措施预防和控制有害生物入侵，为农业生物安全提供保障。

Invasion risk assessment, early warning and monitoring of major invasive pests introduced with fruit and vegetables from Taiwan to mainland China

[Aim] To quantitively access the invasion risk of the major pest and disease introduced with fruit and vegetables from Taiwan Island to mainland China.[Method] We first identified 14 pests as risk assessment objects and proposed a comprehensive risk assessment index system, including 4 different layers, i.e. object, item, factor, index layers. A total of 26 index parameters were identified to access their risk level, including introduction, colonization, diffusion and impacts in the risk assessment area. Second, climatic niche modeling was applied to predict suitable habitats. Finally, we delimited their overall invasion risks by overlapping all the predicted suitability, main nodes of imported fruit and vegetable from Taiwan to mainland China.[Result] All the comprehensive risk values of 14 pests were>0.7, which classified them as invasive species of high risk. Although the predicted climatically suitable area of 14 pests was different, southern and eastern parts of China were all identified as suitable region. Additionally, more than 95% of the receiving ports, transfer stations, entrepots of imported Taiwanese fruit and vegetables were located in this region which can thus vastly increase their invasion risk.[Conclusion] It is concluded that import trade of Taiwanese fruit and vegetables can promote or intensify pests invasion risk to mainland of China. Our results further corroborate that the Taiwan Island is steppingstone of pest to invade mainland China. It is recommended that strict quarantine, early monitoring and warning measures should be further strengthened to prevent and control new invasions.