Dispersion statistics and a sampling plan for Helicoverpa (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on fresh-market tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum)

Abstract  Helicoverpa spp. is the primary pest in the Australian fresh-market tomato industry. We describe the spatial distribution of Helicoverpa spp. eggs on fresh-market tomato crops in the Goulburn Valley region of Victoria, and present a sequential sampling plan for monitoring population densities. The distribution of Helicoverpa spp. eggs was highly contagious, as indicated by a Taylor's b -value of 1.59. This high level of contagion meant that relatively large sample sizes would need to be collected to obtain an estimate of population density. High-precision sampling plans generally necessitated impractical sample sizes, and thus the plan we present is a relatively low-precision level plan (SE/mean = 0.3). Nonetheless, this level of precision is considered adequate for most agronomic scenarios. The plan was validated using a statistical re-sampling approach. The level of precision achieved was generally close to the nominal level. Likewise, the number of samples collected generally showed little departure from the theoretically calculated minimum sample size.