基于FWI湿度码的塔河林业局地表凋落物含水率预测

加拿大火险天气指标系统(FWI)是目前世界上应用最广的火险天气系统，其可燃物含水率预测方法成为一种重要的研究方法.本文以黑龙江省大兴安岭地区塔河林业局典型林分为研究对象，通过野外地表凋落物含水率的连续观测，分析了凋落物含水率与FWI系统3个湿度码[细小可燃物湿度码（FFMC）、枯落物下层湿度码（DMC）、干旱码（DC）]之间的关系.结果表明： 对于研究地区8个样地单独取样的地表凋落物，用FWI系统的湿度码FFMC所建立的线性预测方程的平均绝对误差和平均相对误差分别为14.9%和70.7%，低于气象要素回归模型，说明采用FWI湿度码来预测地表凋落物含水率具有一定优势，可用于预测可燃物含水率，但这种优势是有限的.今后应加强对FWI系统在我国应用的修正工作，特别是雨后可燃物湿度码的修正.

Prediction of litter moisture content in Tahe Forestry Bureau of Northeast China based on FWI moisture codes.

Canadian fire weather index system (FWI) is the most widely used fire weather index system in the world. Its fuel moisture prediction is also a very important research method. In this paper, litter moisture contents of typical forest types in Tahe Forestry Bureau of Northeast China were successively observed and the relationships between FWI codes (fine fuel moisture code FFMC, duff moisture code DMC and drought code DC) and fuel moisture were analyzed. Results showed that the mean absolute error and the mean relative error of models established using FWI moisture code FFMC was 14.9% and 70.7%, respectively, being lower than those of meteorological elements regression model, which indicated that FWI codes had some advantage in predicting litter moisture contents and could be used to predict fuel moisture contents. But the advantage was limited, and further calibration was still needed, especially in modification of FWI codes after rainfall.