气候变化背景下东北水稻的时空分布特征

以受气候变化影响显著的中国东北地区(黑龙江、吉林和辽宁)为研究区域,以水稻为研究对象,利用1980—2010年东北三省分县水稻播种面积、水田分布以及水稻气候适宜性分布等多源数据,结合作物空间分配模型(SPAM),在5′×5′的像元尺度上模拟了东北地区水稻时空变化过程,结合气温、降水等气候因子的空间分异,重点分析了水稻分布在不同积温与降水区间的时空变化特征.结果表明: 水稻分布的核心纬度由北纬39°—46°推移至41°—47°,经度则由122°—127°向东推移至131°,同时还呈现向200 m以上的较高海拔地区扩展的趋势;区域内积温带均向北偏移,新增的水稻面积主要集中在2800～3400 ℃·d的积温区间;研究期间区域内降水量2000年以前呈增加趋势,之后下降,水稻面积变化则主要发生于300～600 mm的降水区间内.

Rice area change in Northeast China and its correlation with climate change.

Based on the time-series map of rice area, a spatial production allocation model (SPAM) which has been applied for mapping the global level crop allocation datasets was deve-loped to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rice area in Northeast China during 1980-2010 within 5′×5′ grid cells. The spatio-temporal variations of rice area with temperature and precipita-tion during past 30 years were explored. The results indicated that the rice area expanded significantly northwards to46° N before 2000. After that, the increased sown area mainly occurred in the northern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, rice area also expanded eastwards to 131° E and toward the higher elevation regions (above 200 m). Due to a northward movement of accumulated temperature belts, the new rice area mainly appeared in the regions with an annual accumulated temperature (AAT) between 2800 and 3400 ℃·d. The trend of precipitation during the study period increased before 2000 and decreased afterwards. The increased rice area was found mainly in the regions with precipitation range from 300 mm to 600 mm.