The impact of lockdown strategies on the basic reproductive number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Saudi Arabia |
| |
| Authors: | Saleh Ahmad Alajlan Noara K. Alhusseini Syed Mohammed Basheeruddin Asdaq Yahya Mohzari Ahmad Alamer Ahmed A. Alrashed Abdulhakeem S. Alamri Walaa F. Alsanie Majid Alhomrani |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Pediatric Dentistry Department, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;2. College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;3. Department of Pharmacy Practice, College of Pharmacy, AlMaarefa University, Dariyah, 13713 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;4. Pharmacy Department, Clinical Pharmacy Section, King Saud Medical City, Saudi Arabia;5. Center for Health Outcomes and PharmacoEconomic Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA;6. Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Alkharj, Saudi Arabia;7. Pharmaceutical Care Department, Main Hospital, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;8. Department of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, The Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, Taif University, Taif, Saudi Arabia;9. Centre of Biomedical Sciences Research (CBSR), Deanship of Scientific Research, Taif University, Saudi Arabia |
| |
| Abstract: | Background & ObjectivesIn late December 2019, an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS COV-2) occurred in the city of Wuhan, the capital of the Hubei province in the central part of the People’s Republic of China (Ren et al., 2020). In Saudi Arabia, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in March 2, 2020. In March 8, 2020, the Saudi authorities adopted the lockdown strategy to contain the disease. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the various phases of the lockdown strategy in Saudi Arabia and its impact on the basic reproductive number (R0) of the COVID-19 outbreak.Material and MethodsThe timeline of the COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia was divided into three-time intervals. Google Mobility Community Reports (2020) was used to estimate the changes in community mobility during the various phases of the lockdown. The basic reproductive number (R0) of the COVID-19 outbreak was calculated daily using the Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) model based on the Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH) daily reports. This is a standard system to determine the spread of the virus on the basis of infection rate, quarantine rate as well as confirmation rate. The mean values of the calculated R0 during each interval were compared using one-way ANOVA test.ResultsThere was no statistically significant difference between the mean values of the different phases of the lockdown (P > 0.05). Moreover, mean R0 value of the second interval was 0.09 higher than the initial interval with free community mobility. Furthermore, the mean R0 values of the third interval with the full lockdown was 0.28 higher than the initial interval.ConclusionEarly implementation of lockdown strategy combined with other social distancing strategies help in containing infectious outbreaks in their early phases. Continuous assessment of such strategies’ effectiveness provides decision makers with precious information needed to justify their application when considering their economic impact. |
| |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 Lockdown Saudi Arabia Reproductive number Strategies |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
