Shifts in phenology of Bythotrephes longimanus and its modern success in Lake Maggiore as a result of changes in climate and trophy

In Lake Maggiore, the density of the invertebrate predator Bythotrepheslongimanus increased following lake re-oligotrophication inthe late 1980s. This "invasion" was followed by dramatic changesin the pelagic food web, consistent with those that followedthe establishment of B. longimanus in North American lakes whereit is not native. In this contribution, we explore the modernsuccess of B. longimanus in Lake Maggiore by investigating itsphenology and population density, and their correlations withabiotic and biotic factors during the period from 1981 to 2003.A 10-fold increase in the abundance of B. longimanus followedan earlier start and longer duration of annual population growth.Increased prey resources and decreased predation pressure werenot observed during the B. longimanus density increase. Instead,a rise in lake temperature may have altered the reproductivecycle of this species. Furthermore, the depth and duration ofa refuge from visually orienting fish predators increased duringthese 20 years, as a result of changes in the thermal stratificationregime of the lake. This case study provides a timely exampleof how climatic changes may interact with biotic drivers (e.g.fish predation) to influence the density and phenology of aninvertebrate predator.