Probability and Persistence of High Pollutant Concentrations in Soils: A Modeling Study and Implications for Exposure and Risk Assessment

Risk assessments for environmental pollutants have relied upon steady-state models that do not represent the variability of pollutant transport and fate processes, thus predictions are unlikely to reflect the true variability in pollutant concentrations. Such models cannot be used to estimate the probability, magnitude and duration of short- to intermediate-term and high-concentration events that might lead to adverse acute impacts. In this study, a numerical model is used to simulate pollutant accumulation in surface soils at six U.S. locations that result from atmospheric deposition and leaching. Historical (50 year) precipitation data drive the model. Model predictions are filtered and analyzed to identify high pollution events (exceeding specific concentration thresholds) and their occurrence probability and duration. Predicted concentrations at each site varied by a factor of 100 over time and by a factor of five among the six locations. The frequency and duration of high pollution events also differed by locations and concentration threshold. In general, larger thresholds lead to less frequent events and shorter durations. The proposed method allows estimates of the probability of occurrence and duration of high pollution events, providing information that complements the steady-state methods.