基于格兰杰因果实证的城市绿地与经济发展互动机制研究

城市绿地与经济发展的互动机制是社会-经济-自然复合生态系统和生态文明理论研究的重要内容。利用面板格兰杰因果关系检验和面板数据回归分析方法,对中国城市绿地与经济发展之间存在的因果互动关系开展实证研究。研究结果表明:(1)全国尺度上,城市建成区绿地率与人均GDP互为格兰杰原因,存在"正向循环反馈"的因果互动关系,即城市绿地水平的提高能够推动城市经济发展,而经济发展能够拉动城市绿地建设。城市绿地率与城市人均GDP的因果关系可以概括为"绿磁效应"(GME)和"需求效应"(GDE)。(2)区域尺度上,东部地区人均GDP与城市建成区绿地率存在单向格兰杰因果关系,人均GDP是城市绿地率增长的格兰杰原因,而城市绿地率不是人均GDP的格兰杰原因;(3)西部地区城市绿地率与人均GDP的交互强度最大,即西部"绿地-经济弹性"和"经济-绿地弹性"高于其他地区。东部地区通过扩大城市绿地率来提升经济发展的空间比较小,应着眼于提高城市绿地质量,中、西部地区城市绿地率较小,应在兼顾城市绿地质量的基础上提升城市建成区绿地率。本研究能够为城市绿地与经济发展的关系研究和城市生态规划与经济发展规划提供参考。

The interactive mechanism of urban green space and economic development based on Granger's causality empirical

The interaction mechanism between urban green space and economic development is an significant content of the theoretical research on social-economic-natural compound ecosystem and ecological civilization. Panel Granger causality test and panel data regression analysis was used to conducts an empirical study on the causal interaction between urban green space and economic development in China.The results showed that: (1) at the national scale, the green space coverage and per capita GDP of urban built-up area were mutual Granger''s causality, and there was an interactive relationship called "Positive Cyclic Feedback". In other words, improving the level of urban green space could promote urban economic development, and economic development could lead to the construction of urban green space. The cause-and-effect relationship between urban green coverage and per capita GDP in China can be categorized as "Green Magnetic Effect" (GME) and "Green Demand Effect" (GDE). (2) At the regional scale, a one-side Granger causal relationship between the per capita GDP and the urban green coverage was observed in the eastern China, i.e., the per capita GDP was the Granger causality of green space coverage, and green space coverage was not the Granger causality of per capita GDP. (3) In the west of China, the "Green Space-Economic Elasticity" and "Economic-Green space Elasticity" were higher than those of other regions in China, which implied the strongest interaction between urban green space and economic development. Considering the eastern China had relatively little leeway to promote economic development by urban green space expansion, strategies of improving the quality of green spaces were proposed for the future urban planning. To solve the dilemma of limited green space, A growing awareness of increasing and improving green space was emphasized in the cities of western and central China. Our results could provide valuable implications for research of the relationship between urban green space and economic development, urban ecological planning and economic development planning.