Land use/cover change and its drivers: a case in the watershed of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan |
| |
Authors: | Takehiko Fukushima Masae Takahashi Bunkei Matsushita Yoshinori Okanishi |
| |
Institution: | (1) Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba 305-8572, Japan;(2) Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo, Japan;(3) Master Program in Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan |
| |
Abstract: | Land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the watershed (2,157 km2) of Lake Kasumigaura during 1979–1996 (Period-1: 1979–1990, Period-2: 1990–1996) were analyzed, and their socio-economic
and biophysical drivers were compared using time-series, high-quality GIS datasets in order to examine the characteristics
of a model forecasting the future LULC. The changes occurred over an area of more than 90 km2 during the overall period at changing rates of 0.22% year−1 in Period-1 and 0.25% year−1 in Period-2. Forestland decreased most in both periods at changing rates of 0.45% year−1 in Period-1 and 0.61% year−1 in Period-2. However, predominant changing patterns differed, i.e., from forest to golf course in Period-1 and from forest
to artificial field in Period-2. Particularly in Period-2, a significant LULC change was observed in an area of high population
increase on the edge of an already high-population area. Relationships examined among LULC change, population, and rate of
population change suggested that the urbanized area was highly resistant to LULC change, and that such change was less frequent
in areas of population decline. Statistical analyses indicated that the most influential drivers for total LULC changes were
population in Period-1 and distance from the Tokyo Station in Period-2. Since the change potentials differed between the periods,
we could not assume a stationary process for the corresponding drivers. Somewhat low S values (indices for demonstrability) show that LULC changes in the watershed of Lake Kasumigaura occurred rather randomly,
probably resulting in fragmentation of the landscape. |
| |
Keywords: | LULC change Lake watershed Biophysical drivers Socio-economic drivers High-quality GIS dataset |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|