Spatiotemporal variations in CO2 flux in a fringing reef simulated using a novel carbonate system dynamics model

A carbonate system dynamics (CSD) model was developed in a fringing reef on the east coast of Ishigaki Island, southwest Japan, by incorporating organic and inorganic carbon fluxes (photosynthesis and calcification), air–sea gas exchanges, and benthic cover of coral and seagrass into a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The CSD model could reproduce temporal variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity in coral zones, but not in seagrass meadows. The poor reproduction in seagrass meadows can be attributed to significant contributions of submarine groundwater discharge as well as misclassification of remotely sensed megabenthos in this area. In comparison with offshore areas, the reef acted as a CO₂ sink during the observation period when it was averaged over 24 h. The CSD model also indicated large spatiotemporal differences in the carbon dioxide (CO₂) sink/source, possibly related to hydrodynamic features such as effective offshore seawater exchange and neap/spring tidal variation. This suggests that the data obtained from a single point observation may lead to misinterpretation of the overall trend and thus should be carefully considered. The model analysis also showed that the advective flux of DIC from neighboring grids is several times greater than local biological flux of DIC and is three orders of magnitude greater than the air–sea gas flux at the coral zone. Sensitivity tests in which coral or seagrass covers were altered revealed that the CO₂ sink potential was much more sensitive to changes in coral cover than seagrass cover.