Monthly survival of African Sylvia warblers in a seasonally arid tropical environment

Latitudinal gradients of life-history traits in animals are thought to be shaped by environmental variables. For example, it has been suggested that the increase in avian clutch size from the tropics towards the northern temperate regions is caused by a reduced survival of adult birds in the north due to increasing environmental seasonality. However, the tropical savannahs of East Africa show pronounced seasonality in resources caused by distinct rainy and dry seasons. This raises the question of whether survival and other life-history traits of birds living in these tropical savannahs are influenced by this seasonality, making them more similar to northern temperate species. We used 2-year monthly resighting data, a multistate modelling approach and the program MARK to test whether survival, transition probabilities between breeding states and other life-history traits of two resident Kenyan Sylvia species (Aves: Passeriformes: Sylviidae) are shaped by seasonality of rainfall in their environment. Contradicting our hypotheses, the two species showed only very slight influence of seasonality of rainfall on their survival. Survival in the dry months was hardly lower than in the rainy months. The species in the more seasonal environment ( S. boehmi , annual survival 71%) survived as well as the one in the more constant environment ( S. lugens , 56%). The observed survival rates correspond well to other life-history traits of the two species and are of similar magnitude to survival rates of other tropical passerines. This implies that either seasonality is not the driving force behind the life-history traits of the two species or the birds do not experience their environment as seasonal, as might be suggested by fluctuations in rainfall.