Trade-offs between plant species richness and carbon storage in the context of afforestation – Examples from afforestation scenarios in the Mulde Basin,Germany |
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| Institution: | 1. Department Computational Landscape Ecology, UFZ – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;2. Professorship for Land Use Modeling and Ecosystem Services, Faculty of Agriculture, Institute for Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany;3. Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden;4. Department Community Ecology, UFZ – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 06120 Halle, Germany;5. Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle, Germany;6. Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 LeipzigMartin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle, Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany;1. Laboratório de Ensaios Farmacológicos e Toxicológicos, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande – FURG, Av. Itália, km 8, Campus Carreiros, CEP 96203-900 Rio Grande, RS, Brazil;2. Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e Mar, Departamento de Biologia Animal – Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal;1. Faculty of Science and Technology, Campus of Gambelas, University of Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal;2. Centre of Marine Sciences, Campus of Gambelas, University of Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal;3. Department of Ecology and Vertebrate Zoology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of ?ód?, 90-237 ?ód?, 12/16 Banacha Str., Poland;4. Department of Applied Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of ?ód?, 90-237 ?ód?, 12/16 Banacha Str., Poland;5. Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar;1. Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biosciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia;2. CSIRO, Dutton Park, Queensland, Australia;3. OSUR, UMR CNRS 6553 ECOBIO, University Rennes1, Ave. Gal. Leclerc, 35042 Rennes Cedex, France;1. School of Agriculture, Laboratory of Ecology and Environmental Protection, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;2. School of Agriculture, Laboratory of Agronomy, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;3. School of Agriculture, Laboratory of Agricultural Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece |
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| Abstract: | The German Federal State of Saxony aims to increase forest cover, supported by the implementation of afforestation programs. To analyze consequences of an increase in forest cover, this study investigates possible trade-offs between carbon storage and plant biodiversity caused by afforestation. Six afforestation scenarios with total forest cover ranging from 27.7% to 46% were generated in the Mulde river basin in Saxony with regard to different forest types. Carbon storage was calculated by the process-based Dynamic Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS while random forest models were used to predict changes in plant species richness. We used eight different plant groups as responses: total number of plant species, endangered species, as well as species grouped by native status (three groups) and pollination traits (three groups). Afforestation led to an increase in carbon storage that was slightly stronger in coniferous forests as compared to deciduous forests. The relationship between plant species richness and afforestation was context dependent. Species richness showed a non-linear relationship with forest cover share. The relationship was influenced by shares of land use types, climatic conditions and land use configuration expressed by the number of land use patches. The effect of forest type on plant species richness was marginal. On average the relationship between carbon storage and plant species richness was synergistic for most plant groups. However, the relationship between change in species richness and change in carbon storage varied across space. This changing relationship was used to identify priority areas for afforestation. The different plant groups responded differently to an increase in forest cover. The change in species richness for Red List species was relatively distinct from the other species groups. Neophytes and archeophytes (i.e. alien plant species introduced after and before the discovery of the Americas) showed a similar response to the afforestation scenarios. While afforestation had overall positive effects both on plant species richness and carbon storage, a number of locations were identified for which afforestation would lead to a decrease in plant species richness. Spatial planning should therefore avoid afforestation at these locations. |
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| Keywords: | Ecosystem services Biodiversity Random forest Species richness modeling Trade-offs LPJ-GUESS Plant species richness Carbon storage Land use change simulation |
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