Rapid assessment of metapopulation viability under climate and land-use change |
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Affiliation: | 1. National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc., 1258 Windemere Avenue, Naperville, IL 60564, USA;2. National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc., PO Box 340317, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;1. Beijing Research Center for Agricultural Standards and Testing, Beijing 100097, China;2. Risk Assessment Lab for Agro-products (Beijing), Ministry of Agriculture PR China, Beijing 100097, China;1. Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland;2. Institute of Mathematics, University of Zurich, Switzerland;3. Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad de Murcia, 30100 Espinardo (Murcia), Spain |
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Abstract: | In order to predict species response to climate and land-use change, numerically fast and easily applicable assessment tools for species survival are required. We present a set of formulae to calculate the mean lifetime of a metapopulation in a spatially heterogeneous and dynamic landscape subject to habitat patch diminution, loss and/or spatial shift of the habitat network. The formulae require as inputs (i) information about the number, location and size of the habitat patches for several time steps to quantify landscape dynamics in terms of patch destruction, diminution or shifting rates and (ii) data on species traits such as their vulnerability to environmental variation and their dispersal ability to quantify local colonisation and extinction rates. We validate the formulae with a spatially explicit simulation. The analysis is complemented by a protocol for the easy use of the approach and practical application examples. A software implementation is available on request from the authors. |
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Keywords: | Metapopulation Mean time to extinction Dynamic landscape Habitat loss Population viability analysis Range shifting |
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