Rapid assessment of metapopulation viability under climate and land-use change

In order to predict species response to climate and land-use change, numerically fast and easily applicable assessment tools for species survival are required. We present a set of formulae to calculate the mean lifetime of a metapopulation in a spatially heterogeneous and dynamic landscape subject to habitat patch diminution, loss and/or spatial shift of the habitat network. The formulae require as inputs (i) information about the number, location and size of the habitat patches for several time steps to quantify landscape dynamics in terms of patch destruction, diminution or shifting rates and (ii) data on species traits such as their vulnerability to environmental variation and their dispersal ability to quantify local colonisation and extinction rates. We validate the formulae with a spatially explicit simulation. The analysis is complemented by a protocol for the easy use of the approach and practical application examples. A software implementation is available on request from the authors.