Identifying local drivers of a vector-pathogen-disease system using Bayesian modeling |
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| Institution: | 1. State Institute of Viticulture and Oenology, Merzhauser Str. 119, D-79100 Freiburg, Germany;2. University of Freiburg, Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, Tennenbacher Straße 4, D-79106 Freiburg, Germany;3. Zurich University of Applied Sciences ZHAW, Institute of Natural Resource Sciences, Grüental, CH-8820 Wädenswil, Switzerland;4. Institute for Environmental Modelling, Reifberg 4, D-94258 Frauenau, Germany;5. University of Regensburg, Theoretical Ecology, Universitätsstraße 31, D-93053 Regensburg, Germany;1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Organic Farming, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2. School of Science and Health, University of Western Sydney, Richmond 2753, NSW, Australia;3. Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, Ministry of Education, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;4. Department of Environmental Hygiene, School of Public Health, Guiyang Medical University, Guiyang 550004, China;5. Institute of Ecology, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;1. Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762, USA;2. Missouri Department of Conservation, 3500 East Gans Road, Columbia, MO 65202, USA;1. Université de Poitiers, EBI UMR CNRS 7267, Laboratoire Physiologie Moléculaire du Transport des sucres, 3 rue Jacques Fort, 86022 Poitiers cedex, France;2. Université de Poitiers, Image UP, Service de Microscopie Electronique et Photonique, Pôle Biologie Santé, 1 rue Georges Bonnet, 86022 Poitiers cedex, France;3. Université de Poitiers, EBI UMR CNRS 7267, Laboratoire Microbiologie de l''eau, 40 Avenue du Recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers cedex, France |
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| Abstract: | ‘Bois noir’ is a phytoplasma-mediated grapevine yellows disease that causes great economic damage in European vineyards. Previous studies have examined habitat relationships on a regional scale, which help to better understand the large-scale epidemiology. Local drivers, such as micro-habitat preferences of the vector (Hyalesthes obsoletus, a cixiid planthopper), or local interactions with reservoir host plants, however, are still poorly understood, although this knowledge is crucial for developing site-specific management strategies.Here, we examined the local environment-species relationships of a phytoplasma-mediated grapevine disease on a scale of 15 m in a 2.9 ha vineyard using: (i) data on elevation and habitat types; (ii) cover of host plants Urtica dioica and Convolvulus arvensis over three seasons, (iii) vector monitoring over four seasons; (iv) genetic tests for phytoplasma presence in the vector; and (v) inspection of 6056 grapevine plants for visual symptoms of the ‘bois noir’ disease. The data were analyzed in a joint causal model that describes the interplay between vector, pathogen, disease and environment, estimated with Bayesian inference.Our results indicate that surrounding natural and semi-natural vegetation (fallow land, forest and managed agricultural land) and high density of the major host plant U. dioica are associated with an increase in vector population densities. Higher vector population densities at low availability of U. dioica were associated with higher phytoplasma infection rates in the vector. The prevalence of disease symptoms in grapevine plants was nonetheless more affected by grapevine cultivar and higher elevation than by the estimated availability of infected vectors.The results of our local analysis support current bois noir management recommendations stating that (1) removal of the host plant U. dioica should be best carried out in either spring or autumn; and (2) grapevine cultivars are unequally susceptible. Moreover, we provide evidence that U. dioica control before the flight period may result in low U. dioica densities and high H. obsoletus population densities, causing an increase in vector infection rates and disease pressure. |
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| Keywords: | Auchenorrhyncha Bayesian inference Bois noir Disease Epidemiology Grapevine Phytoplasma Local-scale |
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