Oscillations in an epidemiological model based on asynchronous probabilistic cellular automaton |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Escola Politécnica, Departamento de Engenharia de Computação e Sistemas Digitais, Universidade de São Paulo Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, s/n, Travessa 3, 158, CEP: 05508-900 – São Paulo, SP – Brasil;1. Departamento de Ciência da Computação, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo R. Marquês de Paranaguá, 111, São Paulo, SP, Brasil;2. Escola Politécnica, Departamento de Engenharia de Computação e Sistemas Digitais, Universidade de São Paulo Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, s/n, Travessa 3, 158, São Paulo, SP, Brasil;3. Brazilian Institute of Education, Science and Technology (IFSP), R. Pedro Vicente, 625, São Paulo, Brazil |
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| Abstract: | Consider a contagious disease affecting a host population composed of two groups with distinct habits. At each time step, each individual of this population can be in one of two states: susceptible (S) or infective (I). Here, a SIS epidemic model based on cellular automaton (CA) is proposed to study the disease spreading in such a population. In this model, the state transitions are described by probabilistic rules and each group has its own schedule to update the states of its individuals. We also propose a set of difference equations (DE) to analyze this population dynamics and we show how these two approaches (CA and DE) can be equivalent. We noticed that oscillations can be found in the composition of the group with more active social life, but not in the composition of the other group. |
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| Keywords: | Asynchronous cellular automaton Epidemic Probabilistic cellular automaton Risk-structured model Self-sustained oscillation SIS model |
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