Age-related effects of a nonbreeding event and a winter wreck on the survival of Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis

During 1993, about half the adult Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis alive on the Isle of May, southeastern Scotland, failed to breed. The proportion not breeding was highest (66%) for individuals aged 14–21 years and lowest (12%) for those aged 3–6 years. In February 1994, a prolonged spell of onshore winds resulted in a wreck of these adults such that overwinter survival was reduced from the normal 88% to 14.7%. The age-specific pattern of survival over this winter differed from previous years, with birds aged less than 7 years and more than 16 years surviving less well and middle-aged individuals surviving better than expected. Whether an individual had bred or not in 1993 had little effect on the chances of survival of the youngest and oldest individuals, as most died. However, among Shags aged 12–15 years, those which had bred survived markedly less well than those which had not, indicating that there had been some cost involved to birds in breeding in 1993.