基于MaxEnt模型对蜂巢奇露尾甲在中国的潜在分布研究

蜂巢奇露尾甲Aethina tumida Murray作为蜜蜂六大重要病原体之一，可对蜜蜂产业造成严重的经济损失。本研究明确蜂巢奇露尾甲在全国的适生区范围及主要环境影响因子，对其早期预警和检疫防治意义重大。根据蜂巢奇露尾甲现有的分布数据，筛选出主要的环境变量，通过MaxEnt模型、R语言软件、ENM Tools软件与ArcGIS软件预测蜂巢奇露尾甲在全国的适生区范围。结果表明：蜂巢奇露尾甲在我国的适生区范围主要在华南大部、华东大部、华中大部、西南大部、西北少部以及华北少部地区，高度适生区主要位于华南大部、华东大部、华中局部及西南局部地区。且最冷季度的平均温度和年降水量是限制蜂巢奇露尾甲潜在地理分布的重要环境变量。此预测结果可为今后对蜂巢奇露尾甲的预防与检疫提供理论依据。

Potential distribution of Aethina tumida Murray in China based on MaxEnt Model

As one of the six important pathogens of honey bees, Aethina tumida Murray can cause serious economic losses to the bee industry. The study clarified the suitable range and main environmental factors of A.tumida in China, which is of great significance to the early warning and quarantine control of A.tumida. According to the existing distribution data of A.tumida, the main environmental variables were selected, and the suitable area of A.tumida in the whole country was predicted by MaxEnt Model, R language software, ENM Tools software and ArcGIS software. The results showed that the suitable areas of A.tumida in China were mainly in most of South China, most of East China, most of Central China, most of Southwest China, less Northwest China and less areas of North China, and the highly suitable areas were mainly located in most of South China, most of East China, Central China and Southwest China. In addition, the average temperature and annual precipitation in the coldest season were important environmental variables that limit the potential geographical distribution of A.tumida. This prediction can provide a theoretical basis for the future prevention and quarantine of A.tumida.