Modeling the potential global distribution of light brown apple moth Epiphyas postvittana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX

Light brown apple moth Epiphyas postvittana is a significant horticultural pest native to Australia that currently has a limited global distribution. However, this pest can tolerate very heterogeneous climates and has a wide host range. It has recently established in California with considerable consequences for US international and domestic trade. It has resulted in increasing calls for targeted risk assessment so that appropriate quarantine measures can be put in place to prevent its entry into new regions and further spread. Potential global distribution has been predicted by comparing the climatic conditions of its native (Australia) and long-established (New Zealand) ranges to the rest of the world using CLIMEX. It was suggested that E. postvittana has potential to establish mainly in countries in Central and South America, southern Africa, Western Europe and Southeast Asia. The study provides basic information for further assessment of the establishment capacity of this species in new habitats, and adds to the knowledge required to make science-based decisions in biosecurity.