Connectivity and resilience of coral reef metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive needs |
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| Authors: | L W Botsford J W White M- A Coffroth C B Paris S Planes T L Shearer S R Thorrold G P Jones |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology,University of California, Davis,Davis,USA;2.Department of Geology,University at Buffalo,Buffalo,USA;3.Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science,University of Miami,Miami,USA;4.Centre de Biologie et d’Ecologie Tropicale et Méditerranéenne,Université de Perpignan,Perpignan Cedex,France;5.School of Biology,Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta,Georgia;6.Department of Biology,Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,Woods Hole,USA;7.School of Marine and Tropical Biology,James Cook University,Townsville,Australia;8.ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies,James Cook University,Townsville,Australia |
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| Abstract: | Design and decision-making for marine protected areas (MPAs) on coral reefs require prediction of MPA effects with population
models. Modeling of MPAs has shown how the persistence of metapopulations in systems of MPAs depends on the size and spacing
of MPAs, and levels of fishing outside the MPAs. However, the pattern of demographic connectivity produced by larval dispersal
is a key uncertainty in those modeling studies. The information required to assess population persistence is a dispersal matrix
containing the fraction of larvae traveling to each location from each location, not just the current number of larvae exchanged
among locations. Recent metapopulation modeling research with hypothetical dispersal matrices has shown how the spatial scale
of dispersal, degree of advection versus diffusion, total larval output, and temporal and spatial variability in dispersal
influence population persistence. Recent empirical studies using population genetics, parentage analysis, and geochemical
and artificial marks in calcified structures have improved the understanding of dispersal. However, many such studies report
current self-recruitment (locally produced settlement/settlement from elsewhere), which is not as directly useful as local
retention (locally produced settlement/total locally released), which is a component of the dispersal matrix. Modeling of
biophysical circulation with larval particle tracking can provide the required elements of dispersal matrices and assess their
sensitivity to flows and larval behavior, but it requires more assumptions than direct empirical methods. To make rapid progress
in understanding the scales and patterns of connectivity, greater communication between empiricists and population modelers
will be needed. Empiricists need to focus more on identifying the characteristics of the dispersal matrix, while population
modelers need to track and assimilate evolving empirical results. |
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| Keywords: | Connectivity Larval dispersal Marine protected areas Resilience Replacement Genetics |
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