Mapping urban growth probability in South Korea: comparison of frequency ratio, analytic hierarchy process, and logistic regression models and use of the environmental conservation value assessment

Rapid industrialization and economic growth in South Korea since the 1970s have resulted in severe environmental disturbance and pollution, problems aggravated by the imprudent expansion of urban areas. This paper analyzes and predicts urban growth patterns with the aim of contributing to more efficient urban planning. Urban growth probability index (UGPI) maps were prepared using the frequency ratio (FR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and logistic regression (LR) methods, with and without considering development restrictions based on the national environmental conservation value assessment map (ECVAM). Environmental and legal restrictions were associated with an average difference of 41.70% in conservation areas and an 81.32% average difference in agriculture and forest land use–land cover (LULC). Accuracy of the models was examined by area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Accuracies of UGPI maps produced with the ECVAM were higher than UGPI maps produced without the ECVAM. In addition, effectiveness and accuracy tests based on LULC showed that the UGPI maps produced with the ECVAM had a higher rate of accuracy that UGPI maps produces without the ECVAM. Using the ECVAM and assuming that urban and built-up areas will be 1.5 times greater than in 2005 and that environmental restrictions are removed, urban development can be expected to more than double in conservation areas and borderlands, increase by more than 1.5 times in developable areas, and decrease by half in old downtown areas. If legal restrictions are removed, urban development is expected to occur mostly in former conservation areas, followed by borderlands, old downtowns, and developable areas.