基于生态足迹模型的城市可持续发展定量评估与预测

生态足迹理论对城市生态系统研究、生态城市建设具有重要的指导意义.以广州市为案例,计算并分析了2001～2005年间广州生态足迹动态变化过程,结果表明2005年人均生态需求为3.95527hm²·人^-1,远大于供给,其中人们对化石燃料土地的生态需求占主要部分(72.67%).五年间人均生态足迹逐渐上升,GDP生态足迹则基本呈逐年下降趋势.用STELLA软件对人均生态足迹需求的变化进行了相关预测.结果显示:2001～2025年广州市人均生态需求呈上升趋势,且上升速度较为迅速,其原因是化石燃料土地的生态足迹需求上升较快而造成的.由此可见,化石燃料生态足迹的人均需求是影响人均生态足迹需求上升的一个关键因素.

Assessment and forecast of urban sustainability based on ecological footprint

Ecological Footprint (EF) theory has an important guiding significance for urban ecosystem research and ecological construction of a city. In this paper, we report an assessment on dynamic change of EF in Guangzhou based on data from 2001 to 2005. Our results show that EF demand per capita was 3.95527 hm²·person^-1 in 2005, which was much greater than supply. During 2001～2005 EF percapita tended to increase and the demand for fossil fuel EF was ranked as top one that took up 72.67% of the EF demand in 2005, while EF per ten thousand Yuan GDP tended to decrease. By the means of STELLA it is forecasted that the tendency of EF demand per capita in Guangzhou till 2025 would be going up. It is concluded that the demand for fossil fuel EF is a key contributing factor for increased demand of EF in Guangzhou.