Seed predators and the evolutionarily stable flowering strategy in the invasive plant, Carduus nutans |
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Authors: | C J E Metcalf M Rees Y M Buckley A W Sheppard |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, 16802, USA;(2) Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK;(3) CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, 306 Carmody Rd., St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, 4067, Australia;(4) School of Integrative Biology, University of Queensland, Queensland, 4072, Australia;(5) CSIRO European Laboratory, Campus de Baillarguet, 34980 Montferrier-sur-Lez, France |
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Abstract: | In plants where reproduction is fatal, seed-feeding insects may have a major impact on the evolutionarily stable reproductive
strategy by altering fecundity schedules in a size-dependent manner. We explored this in Carduus nutans, a facultative biennial native to Europe, using two years of data from the South of France. An integral projection model
based on detailed statistical models of the demography of Carduus nutans and characteristics of herbivore attack showed that seed predators select for smaller flowering size. An elasticity analysis
showed that changes in the slope relating seed herbivore attack rates to plant total receptacle area had a large effect on
lifetime reproductive success relative to most other plant demographic rates. Together, these two results indicate that in
the absence of seed predators, as is the case in the exotic range of this invasive species, flowering size could evolve to
be larger. Further analysis also showed that subsequent introduction of different species of seed-feeders as biocontrol agents
could lead to different evolutionary outcomes dependent on the ecological characteristics of the seed-feeders, allowing the
direction and magnitude of evolutionary change in flowering size to be predicted based on what seed predators have been introduced
where and when. Such data would allow us to distinguish between the effect of seed predators and other hypotheses for size
increase in the invasive habitat. |
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