Warming effects in the western Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem: the role of population dynamic models for explaining and predicting penguin trends

The western Antarctica Peninsula and Scotia Sea ecosystems appear to be driven by complex links between climatic variables, primary productivity, krill and Avian predators. There are several studies reporting statistical relationships between climate, krill and Penguin population size. The Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), Chinstrap (P. antarctica) and Gentoo (P. papua) penguins appear to be influenced by interannual variability in sea-ice extent and krill biomass. In this paper we developed simple conceptual models to decipher the role of climate and krill fluctuations on the population dynamics of these three Pygoscelis penguin species inhabiting the Antarctic Peninsula region. Our results suggest that the relevant processes underlying the population dynamics of these penguin species at King George Island (South Shetland Islands) are intra-specific competition and the combined effects of krill abundance and sea-ice cover. Our results using population theoretical models appear to support that climate change, specifically regional warming on the western Antarctic Peninsula, represents a major driver. At our study site, penguins showed species-specific responses to climate change. While Chinstrap penguins were only influenced by krill abundance, the contrasting population trends of Adélie and Gentoo penguins appear to be better explained by the “sea-ice hypothesis”. We think that proper population dynamic modeling and theory are essential for deciphering and proposing the ecological mechanisms underlying dynamics of these penguin populations.