麦双尾蚜在中国的适生区预测

根据麦双尾蚜Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko) 在中国新疆的分布地点，对CLIMEX软件中适宜温度上限、限制性高温、有效积温、冷逆境开始积累点、热逆境开始积累点、冷逆境积累速率、热逆境积累速率和湿逆境积累速率等参数值进行修改调试，调整后的CLIMEX生态气候模型，对新疆麦双尾蚜分布的模拟准确率达到90%。由此模型进行预测，云南、新疆、黑龙江、青海、西藏、吉林、辽宁、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、山西和山东等12个省(区)存在麦双尾蚜的适生区。以麦双尾蚜在新疆发生程度和小麦分布区的关系，对CLIMEX的预测结果进行修正，据此推测山东不适合麦双尾蚜生存，东北、西北和西南春麦区麦双尾蚜生存适宜程度比CLIMEX模型预测值降低1/2～3/4。

PREDICTION OF SUITABLE AREAS FOR RUSSIAN WHEAT APHID SURVIVAL IN CHINA

Having estimated certain parameters of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA)，Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko)，in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region，the CLIMEX model was modified to predict the suitability of different areas in China for RWA occurrence. The results showed that 18 out of the 20 selected sites in Xinjiang were in accordance with the actual distribution status of the aphid. Certain areas in Yunnan，Xinjiang，Heilongjiang，Qinghai，Xizang，Jilin，Liaoning，Gansu，Ningxia，Inner Mongolia，Shanxi and Shandong Provinces and Autonomous Regions were also favorable for RWA existence. When the duration of absence of host plants for RWA，i.e. the non-wheat growing period was taken into consideration and incorporated as a parameter in the model，all the winter wheat areas being predicted above as favorable places became unsuitable for RWA while the suitability of the spring wheat areas for the existence of RWA was reduced by 50% to 75%.