FORECASTING GYPSY MOTH DEFOLIATION WITH A GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM |
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| Authors: | Guofa Zhou rew M Liebhold |
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| Institution: | Department of Mathematics and Computer, Branch Campus of Beijing University, Beijing 100083, China USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, 180 Canfield Street, Morgantown, WV26505, USA;USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Expriment Station;, 180 Canfield Street, Morgantown, WV26505, USA |
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| Abstract: | Abstract In this study, we developed a series of logistic regression models for forecasting gypsy moth defoliation. The models were parameterized by using data collected over a small scaled 100m× 100m gridarea; the independent variables included egg mass density, male moth trap, previous year defoliation, and distance to the nearest cell which was defoliated in the previous year. We simulated the decision-making by using these models; this method essentially simulated the application of current gypsy moth management decision-making. The results indicated that these models can be more reliably applied to actual management decision. |
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| Keywords: | gypsy moth sampling modeling decision-making |
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