基于CLUE-S模型的县域生产-生活-生态空间冲突动态模拟及特征分析

随着经济、社会发展速度不断加快,多功能空间之间的竞争不断增强,国土空间的协调与稳定受到严重影响。因此,模拟生产、生活和生态空间(简称"三生"空间)冲突格局,并分析其演变特征,对于科学利用国土空间,实现区域发展格局优化有着重要意义。以昌黎县为研究区,以2005和2015年土地利用现状数据为基础,采用CLUE-S模型预测研究区2025年土地利用格局;基于土地利用主导功能和次要功能将国土空间划分为生活生产空间、生产生态空间、生态生产空间及生态空间,依据景观生态指数构建空间冲突测度模型,测算昌黎县2005—2025年三期"三生"空间冲突变化趋势。结果表明:①2005—2025年昌黎县以生产生态空间为主。2015年末,生活生产空间、生产生态空间大量占用生态生产空间和生态空间,尤其是河流附近,空间转换更加显著;到2025年,各空间类型转变较少,但生活生产空间转入量仍相对较大。②2005—2025年昌黎县空间冲突水平呈上升趋势,到2025年,空间冲突逐渐以较强空间冲突为主。这主要是由于生产生态空间、生活生产空间不断向外扩张。随着城镇化、产业发展速度的加快,生活生产空间、生产生态空间向外扩张强度逐渐增大,生态生产空间、生态空间将面临威胁。

Dynamic simulation and characteristic analysis of county production-living-ecological spatial conflicts based on CLUE-S model

With the acceleration of economic and social development, competition among multi-functional spaces is continuously enhanced, and coordination and stability of territorial space are seriously affected. Therefore, it is of great significance to simulate the spatial conflict pattern of production-living-ecological spaces and analyse its evolutionary characteristics for scientific utilization of territorial space and optimization of regional development patterns. In this paper, Changli County is taken as the research area. Based on the data of land use status for two years (2005, 2015), CLUE-S model is used to predict the land use patterns in the research area in 2025. Based on the leading and secondary functions of land use, the territorial space is divided into living-production space, production-ecological space, ecological-production space, and ecological space. Based on the landscape ecological index, a spatial conflict measurement model is constructed to estimate the changing trend of the production-living-ecological spatial conflict in Changli County from 2005 to 2025. The results show that:(1) From 2005 to 2025, the territorial space of Changli County is dominated by production-ecological space. At the end of 2015, the living-production space and the production-ecological space occupy a large amount of ecological-production space and ecological space, especially near the river. By 2025, there will be fewer changes in each spatial type, but the amount of living-production space will still be relatively large. (2) From 2005 to 2025, the level of spatial conflict in Changli County will be on the rise, and by 2025, spatial conflict will gradually be dominated by strong spatial conflict. This is due to the production-ecological space and the living-production space expanding outward ceaselessly. With the acceleration of urbanization and industrial development, the outward expansion of the living-production space and the production-ecological space will gradually increase, and the ecological-production space and the ecological space will face threats.