Predictive ecosystem research in the Wadden Sea

Predictive ecosystem research needs a pluralistic approach. Retrospective studies reveal the initial causes of ongoing ecological change. In the Wadden Sea, inherent ecosystem stability may be falsely assumed, because the effects of modern coastal architecture and of anthropogenic eutrophication to some extent complement each other. Expected environmental changes often have corresponding phases in the past which may serve as a model to predict ecological implications. Historically, quantitative ecology entered the Wadden Sea, via fisheries research, from the oceanic side. Quantified material fluxes may reveal imbalances which are indicative of the rough direction of ecosystem change. For ecosystem research to contribute to the maintenance of the Wadden Sea as a centre of coastal organisms, quantitative knowledge of resources and ecosystem metabolism must be supplemented by qualitative knowledge of habitat requirements and species interdependences. Qualitative ecology entered the Wadden Sea from the landward side. Extending this approach to anticipatory field experiments may help to predict ecological changes at the species level.