基于MaxEnt模型的菜豆象全球潜在适生区预测

[目的]菜豆象是重要的检疫性害虫,预测其在全球范围内的潜在适生区可为农业部门开展菜豆象防控工作和检验检疫部门制定检疫策略提供科学依据.[方法]在收集菜豆象已有分布点和全球气象数据的基础上,采用MaxEnt模型对其在全球范围内的潜在适生区进行预测分析.[结果]MaxEnt模型的AUC平均值为0.926,预测结果准确可靠....

Potential suitable distribution of Acanthoscelides obtectus (Say) based on the MaxEnt model

[Aim] Bean weevil, Acanthoscelides obtectus Say, is an important quarantine pest. To provide scientific advice to agricultural management and quarantine departments, this study predicted a potentially suitable range for A. obtectus on a global scale.[Method] We collected A. obtectus distributed site information and used the MaxEnt model to predict potential suitable areas.[Result] The average AUC value was 0.926, indicating that the MaxEnt model worked well in this analysis. The areas suitable for A. obtectus include Germany, France, Britain, Holland, Belgium, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and Romaniain in Europe; central and eastern Africa and Madagascar island; the Mexico plateau and eastern United States in North America; southern regions of South America; eastern and southern areas of Australia and New Zealand in Oceania; the Yunnan Guizhou plateau, Sichuan basin, Central China, south China and Taiwan island in the south of China, eastern Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, Nepal, and much of Japan in Asia. The area ratios of highly suitable, moderately suitable, and minimally suitable are 4.95%, 6.73%, and 13.70%, respectively.[Conclusion] The areas suitable for A. obtectus account for 25.38% of all land area, with a high risk of continuing spreading and invading, especially in the south and southwest of China. The maximum temperature of the coldest month, annual mean temperature, range of annual temperature, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change, and monthly mean diurnal temperature were the key bioclimate factors for A. obtectus distribution.