| 农作物产量预报模型研究与实践 |
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| 引用本文： | 史永臣,刘振忠.农作物产量预报模型研究与实践[J].生物数学学报,2001,16(2):229-233. |
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| 作者姓名： | 史永臣 刘振忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江八一农垦大学基础部, |
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| 摘 要： | 选取玉米、大豆、小麦三种作物，建立产量的定性和定量预报模型，即年景趋势预报模型、逐步回归周期分量预报模型和多层递阶预报模型。经过检验和预报实践检验，表明所得到的预测模型具有一定的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 产量预测模型 周期分量 年景趋势 多层递阶预报 统计检验 时间序列 定量预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-9626(2001)02-0229-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年5月14日 |
Study on the Forecasting Model of Grain Yield |
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| SHI Yong-chen LIU Zhen-zhong.Study on the Forecasting Model of Grain Yield[J].Journal of Biomathematics,2001,16(2):229-233. |
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| Authors: | SHI Yong-chen LIU Zhen-zhong |
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| Institution: | SHI Yong-chen LIU Zhen-zhong |
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| Abstract: | The cluster analysis is used to zone agroclimatic, based on the zoning result representative forecasting sits are selected and model for qualitative and quantitative forecast of yields corn, soybean and wheat are established. Including the model of the year's harvest tendency, stepwise regression periodical component model and multilevel recursion forecasting model. Statistical test and forecasting result show that the models can give accurate forecast of the yield the three crops significantly. |
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| Keywords: | Cluster analysis Yield forecasting model Periodical component the year's harvest tendency Multilevel recursion forecasting |
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