| Abstract: | An attempt has been made to examine the exponetial rate of increase of the great discoveries, the "milestones," in the rise of biology from the beginning of the seventeenth century, and particularly in the rise of genetics from the beginning of the twentieth century. The biological sciences in general, during the three centuries named, exhibit a doubling of the number of great discoveries in each fifty years. Genetics, in the twentieth century, has risen much faster. Its doubling time for the most significant discoveries has been about twenty-two and a half years. Either of these rates is of course far slower than the exponential rise in the total output of biological science, the number of scientists, or the cost of science, which have been generally reported to double about every ten years or less. It follows that, as time passes, and until these exponetial rates become considerably altered, a relationship of diminishing returns is quite evident. As time passes, even though the most significant discoveries continue to increase exponetially, it takes a greater total output, a greater number of (assisting?) scientists, and greater amounts of money to yield a set quantity of major new findings. The rapid rise of the life sciences cannot continue its present course into the twenty-first century without meeting ineluctable limits to expansion. It may be argued that as in other human spheres of activity, so too in natural science there are limits to growth which we are rapidly approaching. From the predictable asymptote only unpredictable breakthroughs might deliver us. |
