Predicting the summer chlorophylla concentration in a reservoir based on the environmental conditions of the preceding spring

From a monthly survey over a ten-year period (1983–1992) of the Ishitegawa Reservoir, Japan, two multiple regression equations describing the mean chlorophylla (Chl-a) concentration at 0.5 m depth during July, August and September (C_S) and the maximum Chl-a concentration in the photic zone, including its subsurface maximum during this period (C_M), were obtained. The conductivity at 0.5 m depth in May and the mean air temperature during May or during May and June were used as independent variables. These equations were calculated using seven years of data (1983–1988 and 1992). From 1989 to 1991 two impermeable plastic-coated sheet fences were installed across the upper end of the reservoir along the top 5 m of water column. The equations were used to determine the effectiveness of this flow regulation on the summer Chl-a concentration. In 1989 and 1991, when the fences were in place from June to August, no effects were found on the observed C_S and C_Mvalues. In 1990, when the fences had been in place since October 1989, the observed values were lower than the predicted values.