Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis期刊界 All Journals 搜尽天下杂志传播学术成果专业期刊搜索期刊信息化学术搜索

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Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

Authors:	Andrew D Richardson Ryan S Anderson M Altaf Arain Alan G Barr Gil Bohrer Guangsheng Chen Jing M Chen Philippe Ciais Kenneth J Davis Ankur R Desai Michael C Dietze Danilo Dragoni Steven R Garrity Christopher M Gough Robert Grant David Y Hollinger Hank A Margolis Harry McCaughey Mirco Migliavacca Russell K Monson J William Munger Benjamin Poulter Brett M Raczka Daniel M Ricciuto Alok K Sahoo Kevin Schaefer Hanqin Tian Rodrigo Vargas Hans Verbeeck Jingfeng Xiao Yongkang Xue

Institution:	1. Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, , Cambridge, MA, 02138 USA;2. Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana, , Missoula, MT, 59812 USA;3. School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, , Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4K1 Canada;4. Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, , Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 3H5 Canada;5. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Geodetic Science, Ohio State University, , Columbus, OH, 43210 USA;6. School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, , Auburn, AL, 36849 USA;7. Department of Geography, University of Toronto, , Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3G3 Canada;8. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climatet de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA CNRS UVSQ, , Orme des Merisiers, 91190 Gif‐sur‐Yvette, France;9. Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, , University Park, PA, 16802 USA;10. Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Madison, , Madison, WI, 53706 USA;11. Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign, , Urbana, IL, 61801 USA;12. Department of Geography, Indiana University, , Bloomington, IN, 47405 USA;13. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Ohio State University, , Columbus, OH, 43210 USA;14. Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, , Richmond, VA, 23284 USA;15. Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, , Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2E3 Canada;16. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, , Durham, NH, 03824 USA;17. Centre d’étude de la Forêt, Faculty of Forestry, Geography and Geomatics, Laval University, , Quebec City, Quebec, G1V 0A6 Canada;18. Department of Geography, Queen's University, , Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6 Canada;19. European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Change and Air Quality Unit, , I‐21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;20. Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, , Boulder, CO, 80309 USA;21. School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, , Cambridge, MA, 02138 USA;22. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, , 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;23. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, , Oak Ridge, TN, 37831 USA;24. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, , Princeton, NJ, 08544 USA;25. National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, , Boulder, CO, 80309 USA;26. International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, , Auburn, AL, 36849 USA;27. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), , Ensenada, BC, Mexico;28. Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, , Belgium;29. Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, , Durham, NH, 03824 USA;30. Department of Geography, University of California–Los Angeles, , Los Angeles, CA, 90095 USA

Abstract:	Phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis and other ecosystem processes, as well as competitive interactions and feedbacks to the climate system. We conducted an analysis to evaluate the representation of phenology, and the associated seasonality of ecosystem‐scale CO₂ exchange, in 14 models participating in the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Model predictions were evaluated using long‐term measurements (emphasizing the period 2000–2006) from 10 forested sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet‐Canada networks. In deciduous forests, almost all models consistently predicted that the growing season started earlier, and ended later, than was actually observed; biases of 2 weeks or more were typical. For these sites, most models were also unable to explain more than a small fraction of the observed interannual variability in phenological transition dates. Finally, for deciduous forests, misrepresentation of the seasonal cycle resulted in over‐prediction of gross ecosystem photosynthesis by +160 ± 145 g C m^?2 yr^?1 during the spring transition period and +75 ± 130 g C m^?2 yr^?1 during the autumn transition period (13% and 8% annual productivity, respectively) compensating for the tendency of most models to under‐predict the magnitude of peak summertime photosynthetic rates. Models did a better job of predicting the seasonality of CO₂ exchange for evergreen forests. These results highlight the need for improved understanding of the environmental controls on vegetation phenology and incorporation of this knowledge into better phenological models. Existing models are unlikely to predict future responses of phenology to climate change accurately and therefore will misrepresent the seasonality and interannual variability of key biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled global climate models.

Keywords:	autumn senescence carbon cycle land surface model (LSM) leaf area index (LAI) model error North American Carbon Program (NACP) phenology seasonal dynamics spring onset

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