气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响

明确气候变化对黑龙江省水稻孕穗期和抽穗期障碍型冷害的影响,可为水稻安全生产提供科学依据。基于黑龙江省70个台站1971—2012年的气象资料和10个台站1980—2011年水稻生育期数据,结合水稻障碍型冷害指标,分析了气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响。结果表明:(1)水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高;抽穗期障碍型冷害1970s和1980s发生频率高,1990s和2000s发生频率低。(2)抽穗期障碍型冷害发生程度大于孕穗期障碍型冷害。(3)不同熟型水稻品种可种植北界逐渐北移东扩,极早熟、早熟和中熟品种可种植范围分别缩小了5、21和11个县(市),中晚熟和晚熟品种可种植范围分别扩大了14和23个县(市)。(4)随着水稻种植格局的变化,不同熟型水稻障碍型冷害均在1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高。

Influence of climate change on sterile-type cooling injury in rice in Heilongjiang Province, China

Climate change and its effects are the major concerns among researchers in a variety of fields. A large quantity of rice is produced in Heilongjiang Province, China; however, the yield and quality can be adversely affected by low temperatures. Heilongjiang Province shows obvious signs of climate warming. Therefore, in the context of climate change, understanding the causes cold damage of rice at booting and heading stages leading to sterility could provide scientific basis for reliable rice production in Heilongjiang Province. We analyzed the influences of climate change cold-damage induced sterility in rice in Heilongjiang Province. Using meteorological data from 70 weather stations during the period between 1971 and 2012 and rice phenology data from 10 of these stations between 1980 and 2011, rice phenological parameters for the other 60 stations were estimated. This was done by applying the phenology law proposed by A. D. Hopkins combined with indices of cold-damage induced sterility in rice (following meteorological standard QX/T101-2009:degrees of cooling injury of rice and maize, Chinese Meteorological Administration, 2009). (1) The frequency of cold-damage induced sterility at booting stage of rice was highest in the 2000s, followed by the 1970s and 1980s, and was the lowest in the 1990s. The widest distribution of cold-damage induced sterility at booting stage (approximately 5-20 counties) happened in 1971, 1986, 1990, 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2009. The frequency of cold-damage induced sterility at heading stage was higher during the 1970s and 1980s, and lower during from the 1990s to 2000s. The widest distribution of cold-damage induced sterility at heading stage (more than 20 counties) occurred in 1971, 1972, 1977, 1981, 1990, 1992, and 2012. (2) Both the frequency and geographical extent of cold-damage induced sterility at booting stage were higher than that at heading stage. (3) Rice planting patterns, which are determined based on accumulated temperature, changed with changes in climate. The potential area of cultivation of each variety extended northward and eastward gradually. The potential areas of cultivation for very-early-maturating, early-maturating and middle-maturating varieties were reduced to 5, 21, and 11 counties, respectively. However, the potential areas of cultivation of middle-late-maturating and late-maturating varieties expanded to 14 and 23 counties, respectively. Therefore, the change in potential cultivation area for late-maturating varieties was the most significant. (4) With the changes in planting distributions of rice, the frequency of cold-damage induced sterility in rice was variable, with the lowest occurrence in the 1990s and the highest occurrence in the 2000s.